Things that will shock us in the NFL Draft if they don’t happen
The NFL Draft is nearly upon us. The NFL Draft is the primary way for smart NFL teams to build their rosters for current and future impact. The NFL Draft is also the biggest crapshoot in sports.
Nobody knows what’s going to happen in this NFL Draft. But we will all be shocked if the following do not happen.
1. The Denver Broncos do not draft a quarterback high in the NFL Draft.
The Broncos have only two quarterbacks left on their current offseason roster. Some may even struggle to recall the projected starter’s name (it’s Jarrett Stidham). As good as Stidham may be (his NFL career so far reveals a starting record of 1–3) he will not be the de facto starting quarterback on the Broncos for long. Another cheap veteran is likely to be added before training camp, but expect the Broncos to spend their #12 overall pick on the best remaining quarterback (the presumed top four will likely be gone by #12 (Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, Jayden Daniels, J.J. McCarthy) so the Broncos will have to tell themselves they really like Bo Nix or Michael Penix with the #12 pick. Might they trade down to retain better value for these less-preferred second-tier prospects? Maybe. But how much can you risk when you only have two middling quarterbacks on your roster? I’m not even naming the second guy and I bet you aren’t sure who he is. A top pick must be expended on the position, and almost certainly a day 3 pick to develop. The Broncos do not have the ammunition to trade up.
2. The Minnesota Vikings do not draft a quarterback high in the NFL Draft.
Just like the Broncos, the Vikings are clearly aiming to spend a top pick on a new quarterback in the NFL Draft now that Kirk Cousins is in Atlanta. Unlike the Broncos, the Vikings do have the ammunition to trade up (two first-round picks), so they may not be content to wait for a quarterback to fall to them at #11 in round one. They might even aim as high as the fifth overall pick (currently owned by the Los Angeles Chargers) to nab their QB. The Chargers are in prime position to demand great trade value from QB-starved teams since they have their franchise QB already on the roster. But wait, what about #4? The Arizona Cardinals, like the Chargers, are also locked in on their starting quarterback and open for business. They’ve made it clear they are considering trading out for the right price.
3. A running back will not be drafted in the first round.
The narrative often heard this spring is that this is not a great year for running backs. There are no consensus first-round level running backs that are likely to be plucked. A better bet is around the middle of the second round, where Texas’ Jonathan Brooks could start to look good to RB-needy teams. A funny thing happened this offseason: NFL teams appear to be signaling their agreement with the draftniks that this year’s rookie crop is wanting, and some head-scratching deals have been made for veteran running backs that have seen a fair amount of team-switching pre-draft. They include stars like Saquon Barkley, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, D’Andre Swift and others changing teams. Who is keeping their star veteran running back this year? Almost nobody. Who wants him? Other teams. NFL teams are going veteran this year when it comes to running backs. Some are spending big. Others are bargain hunting. But seats are being filled. The rookies will wait.
4. The first cornerback to go will probably not happen until the middle of the first round.
The two sexiest, highest-profile positions on an NFL defense are cornerback and edge rusher. You can never have enough of either. This year, the top cornerback prospects are not likely to go in the top ten. The anticipated QB crunch is pushing some highly ranked prospects farther down the draft than typical. Mid-first-round drafting teams may get their pick of the top first-round corners; a real rarity. Do not despair, cornerback fans. As many as five or six will probably be plucked in the latter half of the first round.
5. I will be wrong about almost all of this.
Enjoy. It’s all a game of which we do not know what is real information, what is worthless groupthink, what is smoke and what is completely unknowable. It’s all a crapshoot to guess who goes where & when, and just as much of a crapshoot to know who will succeed and who won’t. The most obvious expectation is that the three most quarterback-needy teams (Chicago, Washington, New England) will go 1–2–3 with quarterback picks, for sure. Right? Right? Nobody’s got that wrong. Right?
